The Big Ten Basketball Race Is Wide Open – And the Preseason Predictions Prove It
As the 2025-26 college basketball season approaches, anticipation is building—and the preseason prognosticators can’t seem to agree on who will dominate the Big Ten. Magazines are hitting shelves, analytics gurus like KenPom have dropped their rankings, and fan polls are stirring debates. But here’s where it gets controversial: Michigan is being hailed as a top contender, but some advanced metrics suggest they might not even crack the top three.
To make sense of the chaos, we’ve compiled projections from nine different sources—ranging from expert polls to cutting-edge analytics models—and the results reveal a conference with no clear middle tier. Some teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 9th, while others, like Iowa and Washington, have predictions so scattered they might as well be playing in different leagues.
The Big Ten’s Preseason Consensus (or Lack Thereof)
Michigan lands at No. 2 in the media poll, but rankings elsewhere vary wildly—from 1st (Torvik) to 4th (KenPom). Meanwhile, Purdue is the near-unanimous favorite, though a few daring analysts believe the Wolverines could dethrone them. And this is the part most people miss: Only five teams—Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, UCLA, and Michigan State—were universally ranked in the top ten across all sources. Every other squad has at least one skeptic.
Here’s a breakdown of key projections:
Blue Ribbon Yearbook
- Projected Big Ten Order: Purdue, Michigan, UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Washington, Ohio State, USC, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State.
- Player of the Year: Purdue’s Braden Smith (also a national POY candidate).
- All-Big Ten First Team: Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn (Purdue), Donovan Dent (UCLA), Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan), Bennett Stirtz (Iowa).
- Top Backcourts: Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin.
- Top Frontcourts: Michigan, Purdue, Oregon.
- All-American Honors: Lendeborg joins Smith, Tahaad Pettiford, Alex Condon, and JT Toppin on the First Team.
KenPom’s Analytics Take
- Controversial Call: KenPom ranks USC 6th—far higher than human voters (12th in the Big Ten poll). But here’s the twist: They also slot Michigan 4th, behind UCLA and Illinois, citing coaching adjustments that favor Juwan Howard’s successor, Dusty May.
Lindy’s Magazine
- Big Ten Forecast: Purdue, Michigan, UCLA, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Washington, Maryland, USC, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State.
- Preseason Top 40 Teams: Nine Big Ten squads made the cut, led by Purdue (No. 2) and Michigan (No. 4).
- All-Americans: Smith & Lendeborg (1st Team), Dent (2nd Team), Stirtz (3rd Team).
- Lendeborg’s Stock: Ranked No. 2 nationally on Lindy’s Top 150 players list.
Basket Under Review (Three Man Weave)
- Michigan in Tier 2 (with UCLA and Illinois), but Lendeborg earns Preseason Defensive POY and All-Newcomer honors.
- All-Big Ten Teams:
- 1st Team: Smith, Dent, Stirtz, Lendeborg, Kaufman-Renn.
- 2nd Team: Blackwell, Martinelli, DeVries, Ivisic, Bittle.
- 3rd Team: Thornton, Boswell, Baker-Mazara, Yates, Mast.
The Athletic’s Bold Take
- Michigan as Title Contenders: Analyst Eamonn Brennan argues the Wolverines’ unorthodox roster—featuring a 7’3” center in tandem with two 6’9” forwards—could revolutionize their defense. But will it work? May’s defensive schemes will be put to the test.
The Big Question: Who’s Being Overrated or Underrated?
- Iowa & Washington have the wildest ranges—Iowa is pegged anywhere from 4th to 13th, while Washington swings from 5th to 14th.
- USC’s Analytics Love: KenPom and Torvik see them as a sleeper, but human voters aren’t convinced.
- Michigan’s Ceiling: If Lendeborg dominates, could they surpass Purdue? Or will their experimental lineup backfire?
What do YOU think? Is Michigan being overhyped? Should USC be taken seriously? Drop your hottest takes in the comments!
